PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Pressure on a veteran and senator shows what’s next for those who oppose Trump

WASHINGTON (AP) — She’s an Iraq War combat veteran and PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centersexual assault survivor who has advocated for years to improve how the military handles claims of sexual misconduct.

But when Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa,appeared initially cool to the nomination of President-elect Donald Trump’s choice of Pete Hegseth to serve as defense secretary— a man who once said women should not serve in combatand who has himself been accused of sexual assault— she faced an onslaught of criticism from within her own party, including threats of a potential primary challenge in 2026.

“The American people spoke,” said Bob Vander Plaats, president and CEO of the Family Leader and a conservative activist in Ernst’s home state.

“When you sign up for this job, it’s a big boy and big girl job, and she’s feeling the pressure of people vocalizing their disappointment, their concern with how she’s handling this.”

The pressure campaign against Ernst, once a rising member of the GOP leadership, shows there is little room in Trump’s party for those who can’t get to yes on Hegseth or any of his other picks for his incoming administration

It underscores the power Trump is expected to wield on Capitol Hill in a second term and serves as a warning to other lawmakers who may be harboring their own concerns about other Trump selections, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for health secretary and Tulsi Gabbard to be director of national intelligence.

“If the king wants a different senator from Iowa, we’ll have one. If he doesn’t, we won’t,” said Iowa talk show host Steve Deace, suggesting on his show Mondaythat he would be willing to jump in against Ernst if Trump wanted a challenger. “I think someone’s got to be made an example out of, whether it’s Joni or someone else.”

Ernst’s allies say she can handle criticism

People close to Ernst, a retired Army National Guard lieutenant colonel, stress her mettle and say her eventual decision will depend on her assessment of Hegseth, a former “Fox & Friends Weekend” host and veteran, and nothing else.

“Has there been Twitter pressure? Sure. But Joni’s a combat veteran. She’s not easily pressured,” said David Kochel, an Iowa Republican strategist and longtime Ernst friend and adviser.

Ernst has worked steadily to shore up her relationship with Trump after declining to endorse him before the Iowa caucuses that kicked off this year’s campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. During a recent visit to Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s Florida club, she met with Trump and billionaire Elon Musk with ideas for their budget-slashing Department of Government Efficiency. She heads up a newly formed DOGE caucus in the Senate.

Trump has not tried personallty to pressure Ernst to back Hegseth, according to a person familiar with their conversations who spoke on condition of anonymity to disclose them. And he has not targeted her — or any potential holdouts — publicly in social media posts.

He also hasn’t had to.

The response to Ernst built quickly, first in whispers following her initially cool remarks after meeting with Hegseth, then into a pile-on from powerful figures in the “Make America Great Again” movement.

Only about 2 in 10 Americans approve of Hegseth’s nomination, according to Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs polling. About one-third of Republicans approve of him as a pick, and 16% disapprove. Another 1 in 10 Republicans, roughly, are neutral and say they neither approve nor disapprove.

Trump allies had been concerned that a successful effort to derail Hegseth’s candidacy would empower opposition to other nominees, undermining his projections of complete dominance of the party. In the narrowly held Senate, with a 53-47 GOP majority in the new year, any Trump nominee can only afford a few Republican “no” votes if all Democrats are opposed.

Those piling on included Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., and conservative activist Charlie Kirk, who warned thatErnst’s political career was “in serious jeopardy” and that primary challengers stood at the ready.

One social media post from the CEO of The Federalist featured side-by-side photos comparing Ernst to ousted Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., whom Trump recently said deserves to be jailed,along with other members of the House committeethat investigated the Capitol riot.

Building America’s Future, a conservative nonprofit, announced plans to spend half a million dollars supporting Trump’s pick of Hegseth, the Daily Caller first reported. The group has already spent thousands on Facebook and Instagram ads featuring Ernst’s photo and is running a commercial urging viewers to call their senators to back him.

Criticism mounted at home, too. Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird, who quickly endeared herself to Trump when she became the highest-ranking state official to endorse him ahead of this year’s caucuses, wrote an op-ed for the conservative Breitbartnews site that was seen as a not-so-subtle warning.

“What we’re witnessing in Washington right now is a Deep State attempt to undermine the will of the people,” she wrote.

Local Republican groups also encouraged Iowans to call Ernst’s office and urged her to back Trump’s picks.

While incumbents have particular staying power in Iowa, Trump has a track record of ending the careers of those who cross him.

Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller defended the tactics.

“Right now, this is President Trump’s party,” he said Tuesday at The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council Summit in Washington. “I think voters want to see the president being able to put in his people.”

A warning of what is to come

Ernst has gradually appeared to soften on Hegseth. By Monday, after meeting with him once again, she issued a statement saying they had had “encouraging conversations.”

Ernst said Hegseth committed “to completing a full audit of the Pentagon” and to hire a senior official who will “prioritize and strengthen my work to prevent sexual assault within the ranks.”

“As I support Pete through this process, I look forward to a fair hearing based on truth, not anonymous sources,” she said.

But for many Republican senators who have found themselves on the wrong side of Trump, it was hard not to see the campaign against Ernst as a warning.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, the Alaska Republican who also met with Hegseth this week, said the attacks seemed “a little more intense than usual,” while acknowledging that she is “no stranger” to similar MAGA-led campaigns. She was reelected in 2022after beating a Trump-endorsed challenger.

Murkowski said the potential attacks don’t weigh into her decision-making, but added, “I’m sure that it factors into Sen. Ernst’s.”

___ Colvin reported from New York and Fingerhut from Des Moines, Iowa.

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